On Sunday, Mexican military units (given intelligence from American military sources) set out to capture “El Mencho,” the head of the CJNG cartel. During the raid, El Mencho was killed. That triggered significant cartel versus military violence leading to a total of 73 soldiers and cartel members being killed within the last few days.
Most of the cartel violence involved arson attacks and blocking travel routes in and around the state of Jalisco where the raid took place. Some of the violence spread nationwide, but no tourists from any country were killed.
Locations of documented cartel violence
As of today, the blockades and attacks have ended in the coastal tourist towns. Travel warnings to those locations were lifted. Travel warnings remain in place for several states near the center of the country. My friends on the ground in the tourist areas on both coasts are reporting business as usual, with no blockades, no violence, and all commercial locations/roadways currently open. They also tell me that fewer people are out in the streets and most of the residents and tourists are still hunkered down at home and aren’t going out other than to get groceries. There are lots of Rappi meal delivery orders happening.
Is it safe to travel to Mexico right now? Lots of folks have been asking me that question over the past couple days. The answer is “it’s complicated.”
Before I give you my advice, let me explain why you should consider my opinion. I don’t have any real inside sources other than my friends who live there. With that said, I’ve visited most of the major cities in Mexico, clocking about 35 trips in the country during in the last two decades. I’ve spent the last five winters living down there (in Playa del Carmen).
With 25 years of police experience where I occasionally arrested cartel members, sicarios, and other affiliates, I also know how the cartels operate. I have some thoughts about what’s going on.
To get started, you need to know a bit about the cartels.
The cartels are responsible for bringing over 90% of the heroin and fentanyl smuggled into the USA. They also bring in significant quantities of cocaine, methamphetamine, and marijuana. In Mexico, the cartels often work extortion and kidnapping schemes against both Mexicans and foreigners alike. Many cartels are also engaged in protection rackets extorting money from local businesses.
Most of the locals don’t like the cartels, but tolerate their operations because the cartels provide lots of jobs and occasionally fund infrastructure projects (building hospitals, schools, and roads) in the place of an impoverished government.
Since we are mentioning the government, we also need to note that the cartels have completely infiltrated all levels of the Mexican government including the politicians, judiciary, law enforcement, and the military.
The cartels aren’t easy to eliminate because they have some public support. The same government officials who are paid to eradicate the cartels are also paid BY the cartels. When the cartel IS both the government and the police, it makes attacking the cartel virtually impossible.
I say all this because quite a few Americans think that we can just send Delta Force and a few drones over our southern border and defeat the cartels in a matter of days. It just doesn’t work that way. This problem will not be solved by the time your summer vacation rolls around. If you plan on traveling in Mexico, having a plan to deal with cartel violence must accompany your packing list.
The future actions of the cartels largely depend on three factors.
Let’s go into each of these factors in a bit of depth because your understanding and abilities to extrapolate data into the future will largely determine whether you go to Mexico this year or visit some other tropical paradise for your holidays.
1. Presence or lack of a Power Vacuum- The first factor is how big of a power vacuum will be created in the wake of Mencho’s death. Without his leadership, the area the CJNG controls could become contested, leading to more violence between the cartels. When the cartel members are killing each other over territory, the government will send in more police/soldiers.
When the soldiers target the warring cartel factions, overall violence in the area will increase. Neither the cartels nor the government in this scenario will be actively targeting tourists. That doesn’t mean you can’t be hit by a stray round. With more bullets in the air, your chance of catching one dramatically increases.
2. Mexican Military/Police tactics- If the Mexican government increases the heat on the cartels, you might see cartel bosses start ordering the killing of tourists as a type of revenge or payback. The government looks very incompetent if they can’t keep tourists safe. The cartels know this and may start kidnapping or killing tourists to extort the government to reduce enforcement or eradication tactics.
3. Presence of American soldiers with boots on the ground in Mexico. If our country sends in special operations soldiers to eliminate the cartels, I think violence against Americans in Mexico will increase exponentially. The cartels can’t beat the US Military. Their only option to “win” this war is to start targeting gringo tourists as retribution.
The Mexican people generally appreciate tourists because they understand how much money those tourists bring in to their country. That could quickly change if the local populace perceives an “invasion.”
As a thought exercise, think about what would happen if China deployed thousands of soldiers to the USA in order to target violent American street gangs. As an American citizen, how would that make you feel? Are you more or less likely to be friendly to your Chinese immigrant neighbor after you see CCP soldiers targeting American on American soil? Can you see how Mexicans might feel the same way if we send our soldiers after their street gangs?
Looking at each of those factors, how likely do you believe each is to occur? If you think the cartels won’t start gang wars because of the power vacuum, think the president is going to slow down on raiding the cartels, and believe that the USA will stay north of the Rio Grande, then go ahead and plan that vacation. If you think any or all of those listed factors will go bad, you should re-consider your travel itinerary.
If you choose to visit Mexico this year, your primary cartel-related worries should be to develop plans to respond to a general increase on cartel vs. police violence as well as having a backup plan if the “random” violence turns into the cartels intentionally targeting American tourists for killings or kidnappings. The problem is that travel safety strategies aren’t the same for both threats. We need to break that down some more.
Let’s start by looking at what the cartels have done over the last couple days. They attacked military and police patrols. They stole cars/buses and then set them on fire to block roadways. They burned some businesses (likely those that haven’t kept up with their “protection money” donations). The cartel operatives were clearly not targeting tourists. In all the buildings they burned and cars they jacked, they allowed occupants to walk away peacefully without being hurt.
One way to look at the events over the last three days is as a very large and violent cartel temper tantrum. The cartels wanted to let the government know that there will be consequences if enforcement action continues. In that context it appears to have been relatively successful.
The other way to look at the last couple days is more worrisome. Was it a “practice run” for a more extensive future attacks? Why did the cartels create burning vehicle roadblocks? In future attacks, those roadblocks would be manned by cartel members. It allows the cartels to stop traffic to better target unprepared cops or foreign tourists. It allows them to see how quickly they can shut off access to a neighborhood or a bus station or an embassy.
What are the tourists going to do if cartels start kidnapping Americans? They will all head to the embassy, the bus station, or the international airport. Roadblocks on surface streets heading towards those locations will maximize the chance that they will snag a bunch of fleeing tourists for hostages or victims. Scary thought, huh?
Look back at the last couple days. Do you think it was a temper tantrum or a practice run? If you are sure it was a temper tantrum, you probably shouldn’t cancel your Mexican vacation plans. If you think it was a training exercise, it might be a good idea to stay home.
The Random Cartel Violence Scenario
If you are in Mexico and you think the most likely threat you will face is being caught in a crossfire between increasingly violent contacts between the cartel and the police/military, you should prepare to hunker down and stay home for a few days should your neighborhood/city become violent. Take a look at the video compilation of events in Jalisco over the last couple days. It should give you an idea of what types of situations you should be prepared to encounter.
Ola de bloqueos en Puerto Vallarta tras enfrentamiento armado
Most of you reading this article are probably prepared to deal with being confined in your home for a few days. Are you prepared to do the same thing in a foreign country on vacation? You won’t have all your stored food, water, and weapons handy.
It’s probably prudent to stock your hotel refrigerator with some extra food and water, even if you are staying at an all-inclusive resort. Do you have a way to purify tap water in the event you can’t leave your room? Whenever I travel to Mexico, I make sure I pack my Steri-Pen water purifier. It’s quick and effective, instantly turning nasty Mexican tap water into something I can drink. If the Steri-Pen is too pricey for you, at least pack a cheap Life Straw or buy a little bleach at the corner OXXO store for water purification purposes.
You should also be prepared for power outages. Having a backup charger for your electronic devices is critical.
Something else to think about is getting set up with a local meal delivery service. In the USA, we have Doordash and Uber Eats. Each country has its own version of those apps. In Mexico “Rappi” is one of the most used meal delivery services. Get the app set up on your phone and place an order from your favorite restaurant to see how the system works. That way if things get dangerous, you can have your food and groceries delivered right to your hotel or Air BnB.
Since we are talking about Mexico, you should also know that most popular restaurants also take delivery orders through contacting them via the What’s App application on your phone. Add a couple of your favorite restaurants to your Whats App contacts just in case.
In addition to your water purifier and power bank, you should also pack an extensive medical kit capable of stabilizing a gunshot wound or other serious injury. You should have extra prescription meds in the event your departure is delayed. Having some prescription antibiotics and pain meds might be useful as well.
In many cities in Mexico, doctors will still make house calls. Google the city where you are staying along with the term “doctor house calls.” There will be plenty of options. Pick a couple in advance and store their contact information in your phone in case you need medical attention, but don’t want to leave your room.
The “Targeted American Killing” scenario
If you really think that the cartels are going to be actively kidnapping or killing American citizens, you probably shouldn’t be vacationing in Mexico. But what happens if you are down there and the kidnapping/killing starts happening?
When many of us go on vacation to a foreign beach destination, we enjoy not keeping up with the international news. That might be a mistake if you are visiting Mexico. You want to keep an eye on any violent events in the country so that you can get out if you see violence against tourists increasing. One site I rely upon for accurate reporting of foreign violence is Armed Conflict Location & Event Data.
For vetted information, I like looking at the ACLED reports for the area. Here is an excerpt from their most recent report on the violence in Mexico.
“Yet, the greater emphasis on taking down cartel leaders and the kingpin strategy is a high-risk one that has, in the past, led to heightened inter- and intra-cartel violence. For example, hostilities between rival factions of the Sinaloa Cartel following the arrest of one of its leaders in July 2024 continue to drive lethal violence in various states, despite security operations. Although the CJNG had operated under a more vertical command structure, unlike the syndicated organization of its rival, the killing of El Mencho raises the risks of a power struggle among its leadership that could translate into violence.
Early developments suggest that the most immediate risk is not internal collapse, but rather a coordinated show of force by the CJNG and its allies against security forces. Rival groups, however, might seek to exploit any perceived destabilization within the CJNG to push for territorial control, especially in states that are highly disputed by the CJNG and other criminal groups, such as Michoacán, Guanajuato, and Guerrero, among others.”
I also like the S2 Underground Youtube channel. They have a daily five minute intelligence briefing video that covers all the violent events happening around the world. It’s a quick way to get up to speed on a lot of foreign conflicts.
You should probably also have a VPN on your phone or computer. I mentioned how the Mexican government has been infiltrated by the cartels. Do you trust them to provide accurate information? They also might limit access to certain websites like the governments of China, Egypt, Iran and other countries have done during recent crises. You can’t trust social media accounts either.
It might be useful to appear to be surfing the web from Iowa rather than Cabo if things get violent.
Where are you staying? If the cartels were looking to kidnap a large number of Americans, where would they go to find them? The large all inclusive vacation hotels would be the obvious choice. You are probably safer staying in a local area AirBnb than a tourist all-inclusive resort.
If you are worried about targeted kidnappings or killings, your primary strategy should be to stay aware of current cartel news and have a plan to get out of town and to an international airport as soon as possible when you see violence starting. If you hear of any Americans being killed or news of the American Military with boots on the ground in Mexico, you should quickly head to the airport to catch the quickest flight out.
Do you have the phone number of a local taxi driver? If not, take a taxi ride. If the driver is good, ask for his phone number for future trips. That may be more reliable than using Uber (not available in some cities) or the popular Mexican ride sharing app “Indrive.” during a crisis.
You should also download the ADO bus company app. The ADO buses are comfortable long haul transportation options. You can get bus schedules and buy tickets right from the app, allowing you to skip the long lines if there is a busy evacuation happening in your area
We don’t know what the fallout will be following El Mencho’s death. If things stay quiet for a few more weeks, I might consider visiting the tourist areas of coastal Mexico. If the cartel violence against the police remains high or we see American soldiers on Mexican soil in the near future, I would be changing my vacation plans.
If you do choose to visit this amazing country, please take the precautions I suggested.