Written by: Greg Ellifritz
Since I don’t have TV in my house, I spend a lot more time reading than the average American. I have more than 400 websites programmed into my RSS reader. On the average day I scan about 1200 articles in my feed. I deeply read more than 100. You can guess that my feed in the last couple days have been almost completely full of Covid-19 articles.
There are lots of good articles out there. With that said, I don’t want to share the articles that everyone else is sharing, doom and gloom porn, or wild speculations. Instead, I will share the truly unique and valuable pieces I find.
Check out the links below to learn something new. These are the most informative articles covering the pandemic I have found in the past few days.
I hope most of my readers got their ammunition needs squared away before this current crisis.
Predicting Hospital Capacity: Why to Act Early, How to Think About Lag Time, and a Model You Can Use
“In this example, if you want to avoid hospital overflow, you have to start quarantining when your hospitals are 3% full. Of course, this extreme example starts at 1,000 cases on Day 1 with only 5000 total beds. The effects of exponential growth are less extreme if you start with a smaller number of initial cases. Nevertheless, it’s valuable to have this example drive the point home that in order to prevent hospital overflow, you have to quarantine surprisingly early.”
The best fatality estimates I’ve seen thus far.
Your gym is probably closed. Here’s what you need to do.
“We have been set up for failure and the measures we are taking will only spread this infection, not limit it. Patients having elective procedures need to cancel. We need to stop elective surgeries to free up ventilators. We need to start considering turning operating rooms into holding areas for all our potential patients.
At first, I was worried that we might have it half as bad as Italy. I can tell you from what I have now witnessed, we are Italy.
Thanks for your time.”
“… because of worldwide events, local meetings and local schooling are going online.
It will lead to one of two things:
1. Just like the ones in real-life, except worse.
2. Something new and something better.
Forgive me for not being optimistic, but if what we’re seeing is any guide, we’re defaulting to the first (wrong) choice.”
“We can make it better. You have a chance to reinvent the default, to make it better. Or we can maintain the status quo. Which way will you contribute?”
Dr, Yamane discusses the results of a recent Pew Research Center survey about people’s attitude about owning guns. Those people who don’t currently own guns will be coming to you for advice in the near future because they are scared of the pandemic. Help them along. The links in this article are excellent references for the new gun owner.
“EVERYTHING WE DO BEFORE A PANDEMIC WILL SEEM ALARMIST. EVERYTHING WE DO AFTER WILL SEEM INADEQUATE”
– Michael Leavitt
“There will be economic roles and social roles for all those willing to step up to some responsibility. Young people may see tremendous opportunity replacing the wounded economic dinosaurs wobbling across the landscape. It’ll be all about going local and regional and making yourself useful in exchange for a livelihood and the esteem of others around you — aka, your community. Government has been working tirelessly to make itself superfluous, if not completely ineffectual, impotent, and rather loathsome in the face of this crisis that has been slowly-but-visibly building for half a century. Something old and played-out is limping offstage, and something new is stepping on. Aren’t you glad you watched all those debates?”
I’m enjoying Kunstler’s new book Living in the Long Emergency.
A list of a large number of cancelled events from the shooting world.
If any of you have any chloroquine anti-malarial meds from past travels, you might dig them out. These are also still available from some online sources. If you’ve been to my medical class, you’ll know where to get some.
Those of you with type “A” blood should be especially cautious. I’d also give the same advice to anyone who regularly consumes an NSAID (aspirin, ibuprofen, etc).
I’ve long advised people to get CCW licenses even if they don’t anticipate the need to ever carry a gun. This is why. When conditions become worse, you may want to carry a concealed pistol. Now it’s difficult to get the legal permission to do so.
“The purpose of this short article is to remind folks that preparedness includes having several weeks expenses on hand in the form of cash. Small bills are preferable as in this day and age of debit and credit cards; many businesses may not be able to cash a $50- or $100- bill.
Keep an eye on money availability around your AO in case you need to take more out of your accounts then the several weeks cash you already have in reserve. Remember, nobody thought there would be a run on toilet paper.”
War gaming some of the possible outcomes of this pandemic.