President Trump has stated that he will give Iranian officials until Tuesday evening to open up the Straight of Hormuz before he orders the bombing of Iranian civilian infrastructure.
You all know that I don’t do politics on this blog. I don’t care what you think of the president’s threats or potential actions. What I do care about are the potential consequences we Americans might face.
What do I think could happen here?
Could this targeting of Iranian civilian infrastructure spark terrorist attacks here?
I think the answer is “yes.”
Some intelligence analysts believe that there are large number of Islamist terrorist cell members already in the United States planning a terrorist attack. One well publicized analyst claims that there are more than 1000 HAMAS-affiliated sleeper agents already here. The bombing of bridges and power plants may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, leading to those terrorists commencing domestic attacks here in the USA.
Please read the link in the paragraph above about how I think this planned terrorist attack might go down. While it is possible that our bombing Iranian infrastructure may trigger such an attack, I think that if the terrorists are here, they will wait for a pre-planned date to strike in a more coordinated fashion. The attack I describe above may happen, but my best conjecture is that the large-scale attack will more likely happen in the future.
Instead, I think the most likely attack scenario is that we will see several individual “lone wolf” mentally ill terrorists with a strong attraction to HAMAS/ISIS ideals randomly attacking people or places in the United States as a result of the upcoming bombing of Iran. I say “randomly” because although Jewish people and physical locations occupied or owned by Jews might seem like the most logical target, they present some difficulty for an attacker of this type. In my experience, Jewish synagogues and schools are much better defended than the churches and schools of other religions. That makes these random terrorist attackers less likely to choose them as victims. Furthermore, attackers aggravated by American military policy are more likely to be focused on American infrastructure as a whole rather than focusing on Jewish targets like in previous attacks.
I think most of these attacks will be low-tech in nature, focusing on knife attacks and vehicle run downs. What types of attacks from “lone wolf terrorists” have we seen so far in other countries? We’ve seen nightclub massacres (including arson, stabbing, and some bombs), vehicle run-down attacks on large public gatherings, random beheading, knife attacks, and gang rapes. That’s what I think these “lone wolf” terrorists will default to if this upcoming bombing campaign triggers their attacks.
A lone-wolf French Islamist knife attack
As we are in America and guns are easier to get than in other countries, we might also see these lone wolf terrorists using firearms in an active killer style attack. There is a possibility that there might be small-scaled organized terrorist attacks by several terrorists similar to what we saw in Israel a couple years ago. While I don’t think we’ll likely see significant activity from terrorist cells currently active in the United States, there is a chance that some terrorist affiliated individuals could be convinced to band up for an attack.
A good book to understand why active terrorist cells aren’t the most likely threat.
You’ve probably seen news about the tremendous number of illegal immigrants coming through our southern border. Not all those immigrants are coming from Latin America. You must understand that those folks generally pay a large fee to a “coyote” to be smuggled into our country. Lots of them arrive with huge debts (usually $5K-20K) that they have to pay off. I’m worried that some of these folks could be convinced to commit larger scale attacks on behalf of a terrorist organization in exchange for their debts being paid off or forgiven.
What should you be doing?
1) Commit to being more aware in public locations and carrying your firearm wherever you are legally able to do so.
For some awareness tips check out my 2023 podcast appearance and this article.
Consider which gun you choose to carry. While a .38 snub or a small auto pistol might be a fine choice for a skilled practitioner in a low-threat environment, I would submit that we are no longer in a “low threat environment.” I love my snubbies, but I’d much rather have my Glock 19 if I have to shoot a charging knife-armed attacker or stop a long range terrorist threat.
2. Understand what terrorist knife attacks look like and how to best counter them.
Take a look at the articles below to better understand these kind of attacks and how to counter them successfully.
The Reality of the Knife Attack
Tactical Training Scenario- Playground Stabbing
Knife Attacks: Dealing with the Charging Attacker
The dead knife/vehicle terrorist killed by an Ohio State University police officer several years ago
3. Understand how to identify and respond to terrorist vehicle run-down attacks.
These articles will give you a solid understanding.
10 Tips for Surviving a Terrorist Vehicle Attack
Terrorist Vehicle Attack Information Compendium
4. Have a plan to defeat restraint and abduction attempts.
As I mentioned, there is a small chance that we will see an attack similar to the one that happened in Israel two years ago. In those attacks, HAMAS took over 100 prisoners. Learning how to defeat criminal/terrorist restraint might be worth a few minutes of your time.
Plan For The Worst- Preparing for Abduction and Restraint
Your Tactical Training Scenario- Tied Up During a Home Invasion
5. Decide in advance how you will act if you are targeted by such a terrorist attack or you happen to observe an attack on others.
Pre-planning your response will shorten reaction time and help to ensure that you make the best decisions possible. Here are some references to look at.
Active Killer Response Options for Armed Citizens
Weapon Handling in an Active Killer Event
Maybe You Should Reconsider Your Active Killer Response Strategy
I hope we don’t see any upcoming terrorist attacks on US soil, but I think it’s prudent to prepare for the worst. Do your homework now so that you are better prepared should the violence spread to our shores.
Some of the above links (from Amazon.com) are affiliate links. As an Amazon associate I earn a small percentage of the sale price from qualifying purchases.